World Cup 2011 Preview

So finally, I have returned to blogging after a ludicrously long amount of time, I began on bleacher report who actually approached me to do a blog, but now their website is all weird and makes no sense anymore so i’ve lef and decided to join this one following my friends blogging on here, hopefully I will be able to give regular blogs about the goings on in the cricket world, although i’m sure I said that last time.

But I know what you’re thinking, what a perfect time to make a comeback! The world cup has finally come back and I for one i’m very excited, hoping for an exciting tournament rather than the long winded and farcical one we had back in 2007. In this blog, I’ll talk about the teams who I personally think I have the best chance of winning the tournament before giving my predicting winners, runner’s up, semi finalists etc.

The 2011 edition of cricket’s biggest tournament comes from the subcontinent for the first time since Sri Lanka hosted the 1996 edition of the competition. This invariably, means the teams from that area have a decent chance of winning, none more so than Sri Lanka and India. 

Sri Lanka:

Sri Lanka are always a team to be wary of, no matter the location. The 2007 finalists have a great chance to win their first major trophy in 15 years. Along with solid players such as Jayawardene, Sangakarra, the explosive Dilshan and of course Muralitharan, they have an excellent combination and exciting youth players who can on their day terrorise any opposition. In particular, i’m thinking about Angelo Matthews who demonstrated what he can do with some hard hitting against Australia no so long ago. The other advantage Sri Lanka, is that they are co-hosts and the balance of their team and favourable suggests they can get to the semi finals. However, despite the home advantage, Sri Lanka have the rather odd tendency to just not turn up. They may be on form for a prolonged amount of time but they can suddenly implode unexpectedly and crash to defeat.

But if they can avoid this, they could prove very strong, especially as their spin options are very strong in spin friendly conditions. The phrase “mystery spinner” has been overused when talking about Ajantha Mendis, but he is a very potent spin bowler on his day and he should in theory pick up a handful of wickets in this tournament.

One to watch: Angelo Matthews

India:

In my eyes, India are the outright favorites in this tournament. Now I understand this might be a tad biased due to my heritage, but i’m sure few would argue given the conditions, location and overwhelming support, the Indians have a fantastic chance to lift the trophy for the first time since 1983. Every tournament since then has been heartbreak after heartbreak, none more so than the 2007 edition where the much vaunted Indian line up failed to make it past the group stages.

But that was then, a lot has changed in that time. India are world number one in tests and number two in ODIs. Under Mahendra Singh Dhoni, India are much tighter unit and a considerable improved fielding side. Batting has never really been an issue but now there is a new special belief that no cause is lost until the very death, something unheard of in Indian sides gone by. A perfect example was seen in the recent warm up match against Australia where a comfortable victory was snatched from the misery of defeat.

Sachin Tendulkar is still going strong with some superlative performances this season, that magnificent maiden ODI double century against South Africa to mention a few. Every Indian would give anything to see Tendulkar a world cup winner in his home city of Mumbai on April 2nd. The batting has never really caused me any issue, what does worry me, is the bowling. Although the spin options are vast, the fast bowling continues to overachieve, papering over a serious lack of pace. Subcontinent pitches are generally slow which will work in the favour of bowling, but you have to worry that if the bowlers don’t come out all guns blazing it could hurt India’s chances. But if they do, India have everything at their disposal to win in front of their own support. 

One to watch: Virender Sehwag

South Africa:

Out of all the teams and by that I mean subcontinent teams, the only team outside of that cluster who I think can win this tournament is South Africa. The perennial under achievers, the masters of the choke, they are bound to break their duck at some point? Surely? For the last three years, they have been a big force in world cricket, competing with India for the world number one spot in world cricket. In my opinion, they possess the best bowling attack in the world. The combination of Dale Steyn and Morne Morkel are certainly one of the most dangerous opening pairs I have seen for a long time.

In their recent series against India, Steyn and Morkel demonstrated the firepower they both possess. South Africa’s batting is also very strong, if the big names like Smith, Kallis, De villiers and Amla all fire, South Africa have a great chance of spoiling the subcontinent party. The main concern, is South Africa’s middle order. In my opinion, South Africa’s middle and lower order is a little brittle. Quite often I noticed in the series against India, South Africa tended to wilt away at the end despite impressive starts, on tracks such as the ones in the subcontinent, you have to feel South Africa could be found wanting if they don’t apply themselves properly, otherwise it will be same old story for the Proteas. 

One to watch: Hashim Amla

Australia:

The last time I blogged, South Africa had beaten Australia down under and that started my suspicions they were a team on the decline. Their performances since then have only confirmed my thoughts. I wouldn’t go as far as to say they are a fading force because they still have some very good players but they are definitely a team in transition. It’s an interesting situation with Australia, I shared a conversation with someone after Australia were comprehensively beaten 3-1 in the Ashes down under that the Aussies wouldn’t even get passed the group stages. 

That’s probably an exaggerated view of the situation, whilst things are changing for Australia after a long period of domination, they are still ranked best ODI team in the world, and who would argue? They trounced England 6-1 in their recent ODI series, whilst winning the last three editions of the tournament. Whilst I don’t think a 4th consecutive title will happen, you can never rule Australia out. The quality may have waned but the spirit that made them such a force is still there. Their ability to pull results out of the fire is what makes them a team to be reckoned with.  

However, the two warm up defeats against India and South Africa, two teams vying to win the competition along with Australia were very convincing which is a worrying sign. Particularly the loss against India. 116-1 after 24 overs chasing 214 to then lose by 38 runs is bizarre let alone concerning. It was the spinners who marked Australia’s downfall against India and in all places if Australia’s brittle batting line up can’t deal with the conditions it will be a tough tournament. Michael Hussey in particular, is a massive loss for Australia, his impressive form in the test series was what restored a crumb of pride for Australia, without him, the batting really looks weak. Having said that, no one is really thinking Australia can retain their trophy, that might just work in their favour.

One to watch: Shane Watson

England:

England and world tournaments do not have a good past history to say the least, finally breaking their hoodoo at the World Twenty20 in the caribbean. But England’s performances over the last 18 months has been good enough to suggest they can really do something in this tournament. Test match wise, the form has been phenomenal, it’s the ODI team that still falters. However, I have seen a new England recently, despite the ODI form of late (6-1 drubbing at the hands of Australia) they have the players to certainly reach the semi finals.

But it’s whether these players will perform that raises the biggest issues, England struggled to a win over the lowly Netherlands in their first warm up game and bigger challenges await them. They have a nice balance to their team, probably the most efficiently balance starting 11 in the competition. But I would not say they are the strongest. It’s how England handle the occasion and the conditions that will define their tournament, personally, I can see a semi final place for England where they will meet stiff opposition.

One to watch: Kevin Pietersen

The format of this competition is much better than the 2007 edition which was too long and nobody really cared by the end of it. With this edition, progression from the group stages should be certain for the big teams as its the top four who qualify. It is by the quarter final stage where things will get interesting as the top teams collide. Of course, we can expect surprises, last time out we had Ireland dumping Pakistan out of the competition, we may not get that many surprises this time round, but I guess thats why they’re called surprises.

Predictions:

Winners: India

Runner’s up: South Africa

Semi Finals: Sri Lanka and Australia

Dark horses: Bangladesh & West Indies.